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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • I’ve had what was described above, like once every 3 to 5 years. Terrible pain lying on the floor in the middle of the night hoping for relief with each attempt. Then a generally miserable day and then all good for the next few years.

    By the time I’m at the doctor, nothing is wrong, so they just kind of shrug. Best they can do is guess that either it’s some random bad luck with some food or some stress reaction (half the time it’s at a place like a hotel, and I almost never go to hotels).



  • On the one hand you have the loud public outcry against AI art.

    On the other hand, you have a ton of people charging ahead, particularly in commercial art. A restaurant in my area uses an AI generated illustration when they might have paid a little for an artist to make a fun illustration instead. The mandatory training at my work that used to ultimately hire random actors are now AI generated cartoons. As the parent commenter stated, random Etsy accounts using AI are now drowning out human artists. Maybe some of the big names are currently shamed away from using obvious AI, but so much of the market is not related to those.



  • Well, there’s livelihood and work, and so far no one has exactly inspired confidence that the current labor class will receive a livelihood. We’ve let systems solidify that basically demand that the labor class have some semblance of leverage to participate in the benefits. So far the practical result has been that the hypothetical scenario erases that leverage, while avoiding any concessions that may win over the people that would be screwed over. It’s nice to hand wave and say “some new system”, but without more concrete things to look at, there is the risk of “well, let’s remove the labor leverage and just assume that the utopian outcome results instead of the dystopian”.

    One thing that concerns me is that a common short story held up as an example of awesome utopia brought on by post-scarity due to AI is “Manna”. The plight of the dystopian half is very plausible, but the “utopian” half has a lot of problems in mechanism of how it happened and issues when “realized”. If even in fiction we can’t make a convincing narrative that lands in an unambiguous utopia, then my hopes for reality is pretty low.

    So I guess in short, I agree with your sentiment, but too pessimistic to see the upside being realized and afraid that the optimisim around the upside results in rationalizing the downsides.



  • Also to some extent, impossible to train. If a person needs to feel the situation or it demands the full dexterity of the hand, then that is not going to be captured in training data. It’s why the robots are being tele-operated, yes in part to demonstrate the mechanical bits work, but the tele-operation is the only way they can get training data. If you couldn’t use a VR controller to do a task successfully, then they can’t even capture the training data needed.


  • The challenge is that the current approaches that are very novel broadly have proven relatively less useful for things like robotic manual labor.

    The crux of the current AI craze is machine learning, which needs all the sensory information the human perceives that is relevant to the task and all of the things the human does in response in every detail. You can’t tell a model to “just feel out how that screwdriver is going and make sure you don’t strip the head or cross-thread it by mistake”, it has no abstraction, it can only derive the most likely inputs from training data based on the sensory information.

    This works reasonably well for vehicle operation, where the human generally only has sight and hearing, and generally only operates a few relatively simple controls, wheels, pedals, knobs. Even with that advantage, it needs a mountain of sample data. Millions of miles of drive data to work with and the result is still a bit janky, kind of like a human with about 3000 miles of total lifetime driving experience.

    Once you want to extend this approach to anything involving a more comprehensive use of hand dexterity and everything you can feel, then it becomes a problem. If you can imagine yourself tele-operating a robot with VR headset and controllers to do a task, then they have a path to get training data. That’s how a lot of these ‘chore-bot’ ambitions are trying to be realized, workers tele-operating for demos and training data, in hopes of getting enough training data to do things competently one day. But imagine trying to use a manual screw driver in that tele-operation scenario, making sure it’s lined up, doesn’t cross thread, and you don’t strip the head. I couldn’t imagine doing something even that simple in the real world without just being able to feel the screwdriver in my hand, to feel how the screw is going in or not going in, if the resistance feels right and consistent. If it’s a situation that makes sense to use a driver, then probably could tele-operate it, but in cases where we need the finesse of a manual tool, those are going to be super challenging to address. Even using a driver, I always manually start it, either with my fingers or a screwdriver, and the driver comes in when alignment is well assured.

    Now the long standing approaches are of course already a big factor in automating construction. The new approaches can also make it easier to take a task that was almost within the reach of robotic choreogrpahy but foiled by something like unexpected weight and wind, so the relatively newer AI approaches help make it easy to correct for deviations to provide a steady environment to execute the programmed movements. But the versalitility of a person with full use of their hands and feelings is going to be a tough road unless some breakthrough happens.


  • I want to agree, but have to acknowledge that, realistically, they won’t even know all the things that need to be addressed before the huge userbase starts poking it.

    Back in the day games were limited and the gameplay was generally fairly constrained, making fairly comprehensive QA at least plausible. Now things are so open ended there’s no way a company hits all of that.

    Though I’m not sure every game needs to be that open ended…